The Megabuyte CEOBarometer Podcast

In this month's podcast:
After a brief summer uptick, the UK tech sector faced a Q4 setback, grappling with tough trading conditions, escalating costs, and, in some cases, excessive leverage. October's 5% drop in tech sector share prices pushed valuations to a decade low, dimming the optimism sparked earlier in the year. Capital investments from venture capitalists hit a five-year low, and apart from public takeovers, M&A activities stagnated. While the private equity market offered some relief, deal flow remained below last year's levels. Despite the prevailing gloom, history reminds us that in moments of despair, recovery often begins to take shape, hinting at brighter prospects ahead.

In this month’s podcast:
The market adapts to the 'new norm' of higher interest rates and lower valuations, witnessing a thaw in the SBO market and a resurgence in VC funding in September. However, persistent weakness in M&A volumes, burdened by increased debt servicing costs, prevails. Tech share prices, especially in software, hit a 5-year low, hindering the revival of capital markets deal activity.

In this month’s podcast:
The summer got off to a roaring start with strong share prices and enhanced corporate activity, but August rolled back much of the gains. Overall, UK tech sector share prices were broadly flat across July and August, modestly underperforming the wider market, and the picture was similar in the US. Public company valuations have largely stabilised at their lower levels but there is still some price discovery going on in the private equity world. Kerridge’s buyout by CapVest was a particularly interesting case in point. Indeed, it was surprising strong period for PE transactions, especially MBOs, and we also saw the return of the P2P after a few months’ absence. After a torrid few quarters, VC also looks like it’s over the worst but M&A activity remains somewhat subdued. Overall, the outlook feels a lot stronger than it did in June and evidence is growing to support a meaningful recovery next year.  

In this month’s podcast:
While UK tech sector share prices were stronger in June, valuations remain stubbornly low, especially in ICT Services. Meanwhile, the US tech sector continues its rapid recovery with a 33% jump in the tech-heavy NASDAQ so far this year compared to just 7% in the UK. Nevertheless, confidence in capital markets does seem to be recovering, albeit from rock bottom levels, with more fundraising and M&A activity amongst listed businesses. Likewise, AI-driven green shoots continue in the UK tech VC market where deal numbers were better than they have been all year. Conversely, the private equity outlook is less positive, with activity remaining slow, especially in secondaries, and M&A volumes were also weak, albeit better than a very quiet May. So, as we head into the second half of the year, it will be fascinating to see if this changing of the guard continues and confidence builds in UK tech capital markets and UK tech VC.

June: It's quiet out there people! Weakening confidence finally spills over into M&A and private equity.

May: Reasonable deal stats hide underlying disquiet while medium-term clouds are gathering for private equity investors.

April: What a difference a month makes: the UK tech sector marks time as the mini banking crisis weighs heavily on sentiment while the quoted markets are rocked by the WANdisco sh*t show.

March: Growth rates continue to revert to the mean; the toughest of comps for VC fundraising; while PE remains rock solid

February: Stronger share prices belie continuing caution in many parts of the tech sector, as anecdotal evidence of tougher trading slowly grows. 

January: Our 12 key predictions for the UK tech sector this year